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After four years, the world is on the cusp of another La Niña event, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimating a 70% chance of its occurrence this year. This phenomenon, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, contrasts with the El Niño phase, which has contributed to soaring global temperatures and extreme weather conditions in recent months.

The WMO’s latest long-range forecast suggests that the likelihood of La Niña will increase to 60% between July and September, and further to 70% from August to November. This prediction aligns with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) report released on May 20th, indicating a shift from the current neutral weather conditions to a probable La Niña phase.

The implications of La Niña are significant, particularly for agriculture. Chai Li, Associate Professor at the College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, warns of the potential for reduced agricultural yields worldwide. “La Niña could bring increased rainfall to certain regions, such as Southeast Asia and Australia, benefiting crops like rice and wheat. However, it could also lead to droughts in areas like South America, a major producer of corn and soybeans, which would inevitably impact global crop prices,” explains Professor Chai.

Historically, seven out of the nine major La Niña events since 1959 have correlated with a general decline in crop prices. However, the events in 2010 and 2020 saw an increase in spot prices for corn and soybeans, with significant rises in soybean oil prices, while soy meal prices fell.

As the world braces for a potential La Niña, the WMO emphasizes that the end of El Niño does not signal a halt in long-term climate change. Despite the cooling effect of La Niña from 2020 to early 2023, the past nine years remain the warmest on record due to greenhouse gas emissions. With additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere, extreme weather events are likely to persist.

The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) predicts that sea surface temperatures, generally higher than average outside the near-equatorial Eastern Pacific, will continue. Consequently, almost all land areas are expected to experience above-normal temperatures.

In conclusion, while La Niña may offer some relief from the record-breaking heat, it poses a significant challenge to global agriculture, emphasizing the need for preparedness and adaptation in the face of changing climate patterns. Professor Chai’s insights underscore the complex interplay between climate phenomena and their profound effects on our planet’s food systems and economies.