In 2023, the world once again witnessed the severe impact of global climate change and humanity’s collective efforts to combat it.

During the hottest year in human history, several countries worldwide were hit by heatwaves, and climate disasters were rampant. The area of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic continued to hit record lows. The global average temperature exceeded the critical threshold of 2℃ before industrialization for the first time in a single day…

At the same time, to avoid the severe impact of climate change, nearly 200 contracting parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached the “UAE consensus” on multiple issues such as the first global inventory, mitigation, adaptation, funding, loss and damage, and just transition of the Paris Agreement in text form at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) held in Dubai, UAE. For the first time, countries reached a consensus on the roadmap to “transition away from fossil fuels.”

Can this historic agreement really push the world to “get rid of” fossil fuels and reverse the trend of global warming? What are the obstacles and challenges in the process of “getting rid of” fossil fuels? Will extreme heat and droughts like those in 2023 become more frequent in the future?

With these questions in mind, NBD recently interviewed Dr. Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union, and Dean Cooper, Global Head of Energy Issues at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the world’s largest independent non-governmental environmental protection organization.

Photo/C3S and LinkedIn

Unified Global Solution Needed

NBD: At COP28, the final agreement was adopted, which is a historic agreement that will for the first time push countries to “phase out” fossil fuels. How should we view this agreement? Is it enough for the world to cope with climate change?

Carlo Buontempo: I think the agreement reached at COP28 to push countries to “phase out” fossil fuels for the first time is the most important agreement for global climate action since the Paris Agreement.  It means that we recognize that the burning of fossil fuels is the key driver behind extreme temperatures and climate change. It is especially important considering that the countries/regions that signed the agreement are actually the ones that use a lot of fossil fuels. That is to say, we really understand the scientific principles behind climate change, so that we can better comply with the measures in the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature rise to 2°C within this century, while seeking to further limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C.

We really need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at a very fast pace, in order to achieve net-zero emissions as soon as possible. This is also what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wrote in its sixth assessment report.

However, despite the historic agreement reached at COP28, many people think that the agreement lacks clear and specific goals.

Dean Cooper: The two key challenges for global climate action in the future are the timeline and the specific cooperation.

Specifically, the timeline refers to the fact that the world needs to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 to avoid the serious consequences of climate change, but obviously that is too late, we need to take action immediately; cooperation refers to the fact that if all countries/regions continue to pursue their own energy/climate goals independently, we will not be able to avoid irreversible and terrible consequences. We need to accept a unified, global solution, which means that every country/region has to make compromises of different degrees.

NBD: In your opinion, how long will it take for the world to transition from fossil fuels? What are the main obstacles and challenges in this process?

Carlo Buontempo: I think that “phasing out” fossil fuels is itself the biggest challenge that humanity has ever faced. Indeed, we use energy in every aspect of our lives, from transportation to heating, from industrial production to agricultural production, everything depends on the use of cheap energy.

I think that we need to change this pattern, because we have realized that the use of fossil fuels is the root cause of climate change. Therefore, the real challenge we face is how to drastically reduce carbon emissions, to achieve net-zero emissions, the sooner and faster we do this, the more likely we are to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

However, whether humans can completely “phase out” the use of fossil fuels, or how long it will take to completely “phase out” the use of fossil fuels, is more of a socio-economic issue. Politicians and citizens can play a positive role. For example, the global sea level has been rising, and this is not about the sea level rising a little bit less in 2023 than in 2022. That is to say, if we don’t want the sea level to continue to rise, we have to work hard to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, this is the bottom line.

Dean Cooper: The current expectation is that greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 43% by 2030 and by 100% by 2050, i.e. net-zero emissions. We need to invest in innovative renewable energy solutions to ensure the gradual elimination of fossil fuels (rather than setting long-term plans for carbon capture). By 2050, there will still be some fossil fuels needed for energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel, chemicals, shipping, aviation, etc., and there is still no consensus on this among the parties, so we have to find alternative energy sources for different industries. As I mentioned above, the main challenge in this process is the timeline.

NBD: If the world transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy, what are the implications, and what does it mean for clean energy? In your view, what is the cheapest, most reliable, and most promising clean energy?

Dean Cooper: Renewable energy is undoubtedly the best choice for our future. However, even renewable energy can cause some damage, especially if it is not managed properly. For example, the improper use of hydropower or biomass can cause irreversible damage to nature and have a devastating impact on the planet.

I believe that solar and wind are the two best renewable energy sources. These two sources can provide abundant, cost-effective electricity from natural resources with minimal environmental impact. However, even so, energy development must consider the impacts of these energy systems, such as siting onshore wind turbines in places that do not impact bird migration, siting offshore wind turbines in places that do not damage the seabed that supports biodiversity, and considering other land use options, especially food production, when siting solar panels.

In short, renewable energy solutions must meet our global energy needs for a time and avoid coming at the expense of critical protected areas and comfortable living conditions. But all of this is predicated on our taking action immediately and working together to achieve an outcome that is acceptable to everyone.

NBD: Looking ahead, if the world truly transitions to one that no longer uses fossil fuels, is this enough to reverse the trend of global warming? Or what else needs to be done to prevent global warming from worsening?

Carlo Buontempo: There is no single answer to this question, as it depends on the variable you are looking at. For some variables of climate change, you will see changes very quickly from stopping the burning of fossil fuels. Temperature has a long "memory," and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will also linger for decades. This means that the Earth's energy response will take a long time to readjust.

If you look at other variables, you will feel that time is very pressing. For example, the most obvious one is sea level rise, which is reflected in the overall rate of sea level rise and will continue to rise for decades and centuries to come. This is why the current agreements we have reached on climate change are so important, as they could benefit the lives of our future generations. We are experiencing a major change in the global climate system, although some environments may take centuries to recover to pre-industrial levels.

Dean Cooper: Climate change will reach a tipping point at some point in the future. When we cross this tipping point, we will not be able to go back to what we are familiar with. Unfortunately, no one knows exactly when this tipping point will be reached. The best estimate is 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature in 1990. If this is the case, the current climate change on Earth is almost irreversible. If we can immediately transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, then we have a good chance of reversing the trend of climate change and restoring the climate to its previous state. What does "immediately" mean? I think it means that while there is still time, all countries/regions must work together to achieve this global energy transformation as soon as possible.

NBD: In 2023, the world experienced extreme heat, abnormal weather, and other phenomena. In your opinion, as time goes on, if humans do not take enough measures to prevent it, will the frequency of extreme heat and abnormal weather similar to 2023 continue to increase?

Carlo Buontempo: In the past few decades, the main changes in global temperatures have been associated with El Niño climate phenomena, such as 2016 and 1998. During El Niño years, we typically see warming of the seas, as well as an increase in global average temperatures.

If we analyze the evolution of the climate in 2023, we find that a disturbing signal is being sent from the tropical Pacific region. Warming in the Northern Hemisphere, Europe, Asia, and North America were the main causes of the global extreme high end in 2023. This indicates that the extreme heat in 2023 is not directly related to the El Niño phenomenon, but is more likely to be a pattern associated with the general warming of the climate system.

Therefore, given that we know this climate warming will continue, we can only emphasize the fact that the IPCC report has already said, that all the impacts we know of related to climate change, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, etc., will gradually intensify globally. In other words, heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts will become more frequent, more intense, and last longer in the future. These are climate patterns that are caused by rising global temperatures. We cannot say whether it will be hotter two years from now than it was in 2023. But on average, we will face increasingly high temperatures in the coming years.

Dean Cooper: The extreme climate events that have occurred around the world since 2023 have clearly shown that the situation is very serious, even for those who do not understand the details of climate change. It is also clear that the huge impacts of climate change are happening globally. I believe that not only will the frequency of these extreme weather events increase, but their intensity will also increase. Droughts will last longer, floods will be more severe, and tornadoes will be more intense. In more places around the world, the climate will become more destructive, with terrible consequences for humans and nature.

The evidence is clear that climate change is already having a significant impact on the planet. Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense, and they are having a devastating impact on people and ecosystems. In 2023, for example, a heat wave in Europe killed over 1,000 people.

As the planet continues to warm, we can expect to see more extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires. These events will have a devastating impact on people and the environment, and they will require us to take urgent action to address climate change.