Photo/Xinhua

The Earth just experienced its hottest June on record, but that's not all — according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), abnormal ocean temperatures and heat waves in multiple regions across the Northern Hemisphere are making the globe poised to experience its hottest July on record. C3S Director Carlo Buontempo pointed out on Thursday (July 20) that "the first 15 days of July are the warmest 15 days on record" and "July is poised to become the hottest July on record."

The Washington Post reported that, while it is still too early for official climate agencies to make a call, all preliminary climate data suggest that this month will be a watershed for global climate. The report said that the last time extreme weather like this occurred was 6500 years ago.

Ben May, Director of Global Macro Research said to National Business Daily (NBD) that although of of the widely flagged concerns is that El Niño could help to keep food prices elevated or even push them higher still, and thus help to keep CPI inflation elevated. "However, estimates typically find that El Niño has only a limited impact on crop yields and prices – climate is only one of many factors that will determine the path for food inflation."

In his view, the arrival of El Niño may bring more extreme weather and a new record-high average global temperature next year. "While this has major humanitarian and ecological implications, we think fears that El Niño will increase the risk of global stagflation significantly are wide of the mark."

Ben May told NBD that the shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle will increase the risk of adverse weather in some areas, potentially triggering significant problems in the form of droughts, floods, and wildfires. Some regions could benefit from more favourable weather conditions, however.

"Pockets of weather-related disruption from El Niño may trigger suspensions or curtailed production in the worst-affected regions. But these are unlikely to be large or long-lasting enough to herald a renewed supply-chain crunch globally." Ben May further noted.